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 2015 Hottest Redhead: Emma Stone, celebration & discussion
mbanes3
 Posted: Mar 30 2015, 08:39 PM
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QUOTE (Red Gold @ Mar 29 2015, 10:50 AM)
Okay, so I ran this whole thing again... twice... just for myself. Looked at all the matches and decided who I pick to advance. I gotta say: I surprised myself with the results.

First I ran the torny with the exact same first round matches that we had in January.
My 4 pool winners were: Deborah Ann Woll, Angie Everhart, Bryce Dallas Howard and Cintia Dicker.

Then I ran it again, but this time with completely reshuffled matches and pools.
My 4 pool winners this time: Renee Olstead, Amy Adams, Cintia Dicker and Simone Simons.

In both cases I ended up with Cintia Dicker as the big winner.

I always liked Cintia D., but I never realized she pretty much embodies the perfect redhead to me: She is still rather young, I love her hair, her face, her eyes, her freckles, her lips...
If somebody asked me before those 2 test runnings who would probably be my winners I would have given a whole list of names (pretty much all my other pool winners), but would have never guessed I'd choose Miss Dicker in the end... twice!

But when it came to the matches I looked at all the square headshots I'd taken with Gimp and in some cases used Google to help me decide... and I always ended up finding Cintia Dicker hotter than her competition.
Yet the other pools ended with different results. It's also a surprise.
But in the first run redhead A might take out redhead B, while redhead C wins over redhead D.
Next time redhead D somehow defeats redhead A, and redhead B beats redhead C by a hair length.

That shows me: the randomizing is a huge factor. A rather weak pool or a killer pool might end up with a big surprise winner.

You guys might want to run the torny again for yourself when you find the time. Make your choices and everything from the semi-finals onward might open your eyes.


I had 2 days off work to kill, so I ran this 5 times, for myself, so obviously my preferences couldn't be balanced out by the preferences of other people, and this, IMO, don't represent a full test of what the outcomes could be, but anyway.

First, I ran a straight forward, single elimination system using the original tournament listing, and then I ran what would have been the lower ranks as if they'd been running as a double elimination tournament.

So, let's go!

Single Elimination Pool Winners (overall winner in bold):

Original Tournament: Alexandra Breckenridge, Christina Hendricks, Kari Byron, Sophie Turner
1st Randomisation: Evan Rachel Wood, Alexandra Breckenridge, Simone Simons, Kari Byron
2nd Randomisation: Simone Simons, Bryce Dallas Howard, Kari Byron, Christina Hendricks
3rd Randomisation: Evan Rachel Wood, Christina Hendricks, Alexandra Breckenridge, Hayley Williams
4th Randomisation: Kari Byron, Sophie Turner, Alexandra Breckenridge, Evan Rachel Wood

So of the original 64 women listed for the tournament, across 5 random sortings, for me, 8 of these appeared in at least 1 quarter final, 6 in 2, 4 in 3, 2 in 4 but none in all 5, but despite this, no list of pool winners was identical. Overall, only 1 of 3 women won overall.


Double Elimination Lower Rank Semi-Finalists (round they were knocked out in in brackets. If the winner changed, this is marked in bold)

Original Tournament: Karen Gillan (4), Felicia Day (3), Molly Quinn (2), Evan Rachel Wood (4)
1st Randomisation: Christina Hendricks (3), Sophie Turner (2), Felicia Day (3), Karen Gillan (3)
2nd Randomisation: Felicia Day (3), Evan Rachel Wood (4), Sophie Turner (3), Laura Spencer (1)
3rd Randomisation: Felicia Day (3), Sophie Turner (1), Karen Gillan (4), Laura Spencer (2)
4th Randomisation: Christina Hendricks (3), Bryce Dallas Howard (3), Karen Gillan (4), Molly Quinn (3)

So of the original 64 women listed for the tournament, across 5 random sortings, for me, 8 of these appeared in at least 1 quarter final in the lower rank, 7 in 2, 3 in 3, 2 in 4 and, again, none in all 5. Similarly, no quarter final pool in the lower rank was identical across tournaments.

In addition, the addition of the lower rank caused the winner to change once in the second randomisation from Kari Byron to Evan Rachel Wood, who had previously dropped from the upper rank to the lower rank.

There is, however, a degree of overlap between the upper and lower ranks, although not much. Of the 8 women who appeared at some point in the upper rank quarter finals, 3 of them appeared in the lower rank quarter finals.

Anyway, overall, it does seem that a double elimination round provides the chance for early knock outs to progress within the lower rank, but overall it looks like it might also present more multiple-tournament winners (my overall winners went from Christina Hendricks once, Kari Byron twice and Evan Rachel Wood twice to Christina Hendricks once, Kari Byron once and Evan Rachel Wood three times).

However, as I mentioned above, I have my own preferences, which could have skewed these results in favour of women that I find more attractive than more women on the list. For example, Gia Marie, who I knocked out of the upper rank in the first round of the original tournament sorting, hangs on in the lower rank right until she's knocked out by Laura Spencer in round 3.

A similar pattern starts to emerge within all of my randomisation, i.e. around half of the women eliminated in the first round hang on until being matched with someone who was eliminated from the upper rank in the third round of voting, at which point almost almost all of the women who had been eliminated earlier were dropped from the competition entirely, strongly, to me, implying a definite streak of favouritism that wasn't seen in the tournament that actually took place on this forum. Board preferences might prevent the apparent 3rd round wall in the lower rank, thus preventing the rise of multi-tournament winners.

I can't really think of any other way of testing this on my own in my spare time, so I'm going to have to stop there (probably a good idea for the sake of my sanity too lol).
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chazz
 Posted: Mar 31 2015, 08:39 PM
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Thanks for going through all that work mbanes. http://redheads.b1.jcink.com/uploads/redheads//post-22-1274316687.gif I think in the end what it comes down to is we need more people voting.
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The Stig
 Posted: Mar 31 2015, 09:47 PM
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More voting. A double elimination tournament would double the workload. I just don't see us doing one.


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mbanes3
 Posted: Mar 31 2015, 11:52 PM
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QUOTE (The Stig @ Apr 1 2015, 02:47 AM)
More voting.  A double elimination tournament would double the workload. I just don't see us doing one.


Most definitely.

As I said, I've not been pushing this because of the amount of time and work that's gone into doing this just for one person voting. Add in around 30 other people, which we had in some rounds, and it'd get ridiculous. I just had some spare time and was bored tongue.gif
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Red Gold
 Posted: Apr 1 2015, 02:23 AM
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I am all for what Stig mentioned: having a smaller tournament with a different theme in a few months, try some new things in it and make notes for the next hottest redhead tournament next year. We nedd to experiment, try and error. There must be a way to count facebook votes.


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chazz
 Posted: Dec 19 2015, 09:02 PM
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Red Gold Are you going to have the time to put into the tournament like you did the previous years? Time really flies. As far as Facebook I think I'd still rather have the voting at the forum.
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Red Gold
 Posted: Dec 20 2015, 04:10 AM
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QUOTE (chazz @ Dec 20 2015, 03:02 AM)
Red Gold  Are you going to have the time to put into the tournament like you did the previous years?


I really don't know. January is always a busy month. But this time it will be really chaotic! But I will try and do my best.
Doing the torny without pics for example would be huge downgrade from the last one, so someone has to take care of that.

QUOTE (chazz @ Dec 20 2015, 03:02 AM)
Red GoldAs far as Facebook I think I'd still rather have the voting at the forum.


You just need to advertise it over there - each round. So alot of people will come here to vote. Last time we got a bunch of new guys voting - forum dayflies, but they voted.


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